Faculty & School/Dept.
Faculty of Health - Department of Psychology
Ph.D - 1996
University of British Columbia
Karvetski, C. W., & Mandel, D. R. (in press). Coherence of probability judgments from uncertain evidence: Does ACH help? Judgment and Decision Making.
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2020). Words or numbers? Communicating probability in intelligence analysis. American Psychologist. Advance online publication. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/amp0000637 [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2020). Studies past and future of the past and future: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020. Futures & Foresight Science: e39. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.39
Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2020) Uncertainty, intelligence, and national security decisionmaking. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence. https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2020.1809056
Mandel, D. R., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (2020). Numerically-bounded language schemes are unlikely to communicate uncertainty effectively. Earth's Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001526
Benjamin, D., Mandel, D. R., Barnes, T., Krzyzanowska, M. K., Leighl, N. B., Tannock, I. F., & Kimmelman, J. (2020). Can oncologists predict the efficacy of treatment in randomized trials? The Oncologist, 25, 1-7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1634/theoncologist.2020-0054
Karvetski, C. W., Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2020). Improving probability judgment in intelligence analysis: From structured analysis to statistical aggregation. Risk Analysis, 40(5), 1040-1057.
Mandel, D. R. (2020). The occasional maverick of analytic tradecraft. Intelligence and National Security, 35(3), 438-443.
Mandel, D. R., Collins, R. N., Risko, E. F., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2020). Effect of confidence interval construction on judgment accuracy. Judgment and Decision Making, 15(5), 783-797.
Collins, R. N., & Mandel, D. R. (2019). Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers. Judgment and Decision Making, 14(6), 683-695.
Fan, Y., Budescu, D. V., Mandel, D., Himmelstein, M. (2019). Improving accuracy by coherence weighting of direct and ratio probability judgments. Decision Analysis, 16, 197-217.
Mandel, D. R. (2019). Can decision science improve intelligence analysis? In S. Coulthart, M. Landon-Murray, & D. Van Puyvelde (Eds), Researching National Security Intelligence: Multidisciplinary Approaches (ch. 7, pp. 117-140). Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press.
Mandel, D. R. (2019). Too soon to tell if the US intelligence community prediction market is more accurate than intelligence reports: Commentary on Stastny and Lehner (2018). Judgment and Decision Making, 14(3), 288-292. [PDF]
Chang, W., Berdini, E., Mandel, D. R., & Tetlock, P. E. (2018). Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence. Intelligence and National Security, 33(3), 337-356.
Mandel, D. R., & Barnes, A. (2018). Geopolitical forecasting skill in strategic intelligence. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31(1), 127-137
Mandel, D. R., & Kapler, I. (2018). Cognitive style and frame susceptibility in decision-making. Frontiers in Psychology, 9:1461. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01461
Mandel, D. R., Karvetski, C. & Dhami, M. K. (2018). Boosting intelligence analysts' judgment accuracy: what works, what fails? Judgment and Decision Making, 13(6), 607-621.
Benjamin D., Mandel D. R., & Kimmelman J. (2017). Can cancer researchers accurately judge whether preclinical reports will reproduce? PLOS Biol 15(6): e2002212. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.2002212
Mellers, B. A., Baker, J. D., Chen, E., Mandel, D. R., & Tetlock, P. E. How generalizable is good judgment? A multi-task, multi-benchmark study. Judgment and Decision Making, 12(4), 369-381.
Mandel, D. R., & Tetlock, P. E. (2016). Debunking the myth of value-neutral virginity: Toward truth in scientific advertising. Frontiers in Psychology, 7, article 451, 1-5, doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00451
Alicke, M., Mandel, D. R., Hilton, D. J., Gerstenberg, T., & Lagnado, D. A. (2015). Causal conceptions in social explanation and moral evaluation: A historical tour. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 106(6), 790-812.
Dhami, M. K., Mandel, D. R., Mellers, B. A., & Tetlock, P. E. (2015). Improving intelligence analysis with decision science. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 106(6), 753-757.
Ho, E. Budescu, D. V., Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2015). Improving the communication of uncertainty in climate science and intelligence analysis. Behavioral Science & Policy, 1(2), 43-55.
Mandel, D. R. (2015). Accuracy of intelligence forecasts from the intelligence consumer’s perspective. Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2, 111-120.
Mandel, D. R. (2015). Instruction in information structuring improves Bayesian judgment in intelligence analysts. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, article 387, 1-12. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00387
Tikuisis, P., & Mandel, D. R. (2015). Is the world deteriorating? Global Governance, 21, 9-14.
Tombu, M., & Mandel, D. R. (2015). When does framing influence preferences, risk perceptions, and risk attitudes? The explicated valence account. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 28(5), 464-476.
Mandel, D. R. (2014). Do framing effects reveal irrational choice? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 143(3), 1185-1198.
Mandel, D. R., & Barnes, A. (2014). Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(30), 10984-10989
Mandel, D. R., & Omorogbe, P. (2014). Political differences in past, present, and future life satisfaction: Republicans are more sensitive than Democrats to political climate. PLOS ONE, 9(6), e98854, 1-11.
Other Research Outputs
Dr. Mandel is a senior Defence Scientist in the Intelligence Group of the Intelligence, Influence, and Collaboration Section of Defence Research and Development Canada’s Toronto Research Centre. At York University, he is an Adjunct Professor in the Department of Psychology.
Dr. Mandel is interested in a wide range of topics dealing with human judgment and decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. He enjoys devising studies that test methods used to purportedly improve judgment quality and writes on the importance of scientifically testing beliefs about “good ideas” to determine what truly works and what doesn’t, especially in the area of intelligence analysis.
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
Consulting Editor, Decision
Consulting Editor, Futures and Foresight Science
Chairman, NATO SAS-114 Research Technical Group
Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision-Making, 2015-2019.
Associate Editor, Judgment and Decision Making
Chairman, NATO SAS-114 Research Technical Group on Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision-Making, 2015-2019.
NATO Science and Technology Organization SAS Panel Excellence Award, - 2020
Decision Analysis best paper award - 2019
Fellow, Psychonomic Society - 2017
Currently available to supervise graduate students: No
Currently taking on work-study students, Graduate Assistants or Volunteers: No
Available to supervise undergraduate thesis projects: No
Judgment and decision-making
Probability and uncertainty
Intelligence and national security